Blackjack: Winning Systems - Card Counting

The many myths about card counting can be immediately discounted. Card counters cannot and do not memorize all the cards dealt out of a deck or shoe. Card counting does not allow a player to magically know what the next card will be that is dealt out the deck or shoe. If you see a player take a hit on his hard nineteen against a dealer’s 10 and he receives a two for a total of 21, it certainly does not mean that he is a card counter. It means he is either stupid, or drunk, or somehow he has managed to see the dealer’s hole card. A card counter would never make such a reckless move. If there were only a few cards remaining in the deck, a good card counter would probably know what card may come next. But in the real world of casino blackjack the cards are never dealt down to the last remaining few cards. This would give a huge advantage to any card counters in the game and casinos take measures to insure that this situation never occurs. Never forget that the casino is in business to make money.

However, despite all the above it doesn't mean that card counting is impossible, or that it is not useful or profitable to a blackjack player.

The Methods

There are two methods of card counting. The first is a real card counting system, but it takes hard work to master it. The second is called ‘casual’ card counting and is much easier to do than the first. Read on to learn what card counting is all about and how to use it to your advantage.

How it Works

The main principle of card counting is that every deck or shoe that has a high percentage of face cards and aces favors the player over the dealer. There is some truth in this, for the following reasons:

• A player who is dealt a ‘natural’, an ace and a ten-point card, is paid 3-2 on his bet. The dealer only wins the wager if he or she has blackjack.
• If the dealer receives a poor hand on the original two cards, say a point count of 12 to 16, the rules force him to draw another card and he is more likely to bust if the deck or shoe is rich in face cards and aces. The player does not have to hit these hands if he doesn’t want to, but the dealer must.
• With a two card hand totaling 9, 10, 11, the dealer cannot double in a high card rich deck. The player can.
• A large quantity of face cards in the deck will lead to more blackjacks and pat hands of 17 to 21 being dealt.
• In basic strategy computer simulations, it has been mathematically proven that a deck or shoe rich in face cards and aces favors the player. Likewise, a deck or shoe rich in low cards will favor the dealer.

However, when the number of low value cards is higher than the number of face cards and aces, a blackjack player can elect to change his decisions with regard to splitting and doubling down, because the chances of winning these hands are less when a low card is dealt after a split or double down.

All in all, card counters use a strategy of betting their smallest wagers when the deck or shoe is rich in low point cards, because their chances of winning are reduced. But when the deck or shoe is rich in high cards, the card counters will increase their bets seeing that their chances of winning have now increased.

How does a blackjack player actually count cards? Over the years many different techniques and systems have been invented to keep track of the cards played from a deck or a shoe. Some of these techniques are difficult to master, while some are easy to learn and master. Once again, computer simulations of the different methods of card counting have proved that some of the easiest card counting systems are equally efficient to the more traditional and complicated methods.

Hi-Low System

A popular card counting systems is a system based on assigning and counting points to the cards. It is also known as the ‘Hi-Low’. In this system a point value of +1, 0, or -1 is given or assigned to every card dealt to all the players around the table, including those of the dealer. Each card is given its own specific point value.

Aces and 10-point cards are assigned a value of -1.

Cards 7, 8, 9 each count as 0.

Cards 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 each count as +1.

As the cards are dealt, the card counting player keeps a mental running count of the cards exposed which allows him to make wagering decisions based on the current count total. Converting the card values into only three groups of values and remembering these is clearly much simpler than trying to remember the actual cards dealt.

• The higher the plus count, which means the higher number of ten-point cards and aces remaining to be dealt, means that the advantage is to player and he should increase his wager.
• If the running count is around zero, the deck or shoe is neutral and neither the player nor the dealer has an advantage.
• The higher the minus count, the greater the disadvantage is to the player, as a higher than normal number of ‘stiff’ cards remains to be dealt. In this case a player should be making low wagers or even leave the table.

As more and more cards are dealt the accuracy of the count increases and the player can increase or decrease the size of his wager giving himself a higher probability of winning when the deck or shoe is rich in face cards and aces, and betting and losing less when the deck is rich in 'stiff' cards.

The player’s decisions regarding when to hit, stand, double down, etc. should still be based on basic strategy. Players must learn basic strategy. But changes in basic strategy play are often recommended when the player has a card point count. Let’s say the running count is +2 or greater and the player is holding a hard 16 against a dealer’s face-up card of ten, the player should stand, which is directly against the basic strategy. But considering that the deck or shoe is rich in face cards he is more likely to bust in this situation, thus he ignores basic strategy and stands. Another example is to always take insurance when the count is +3 or greater. For the most part, players should adhere to the basic strategy and use the card count only as an indication of when to increase or decrease the amount of the bet, as this is the overall strategy behind card counting.

Generally speaking, if the point count is +2 or greater in a single deck game the player should increase his initial bet.

In a multiple deck, or shoe game the wager should be increased when the 'True Count' is +2 or more. Is there a difference between a running count in a single deck game and the true count in a multiple deck game? Very simply, the true count in a multiple deck game is based on the actual number of decks left to be played. Let’s say that in a single deck game if the first six cards are low cards the player will have a running count total of +6, which is a big advantage to the player. If the first six cards dealt in a multiple deck game are all low cards the player will also have a running count of +6. But this doesn't add up to the same advantage because there are several decks in the shoe still to be dealt, so the player should use a true count as his reason for increasing his wager. In a six-deck game the first six cards are small ones, the count per remaining deck, which is the true count is actually just a little over 1, since there is little less than 6 decks remaining to be played.

The true count is determined by dividing the 'running' count by the number of decks remaining to be played. This means the number of decks left, whether in fact they will be played or not. In a six-deck game for example, a deck or more may be cut off by the dealer after the shuffle but this has no importance when computing the true count. Calculating the actual number of decks remaining is not very difficult. Look to see how many cards are in the discard tray. In a six-deck game for example, if there are about 2 decks in the discard tray then there are four decks left to be played. Thus at this point, a running count of +8 translates into a true count of 2 because there are four decks left in the shoe. In other words, a running count of 8 is divided by number of decks remaining, in this case 4, and the result is 2. The dealer may, of course, shuffle before all four of those remaining decks have been dealt, but in the true count calculation that doesn't matter.

That's how cards are counted. It takes a bit of concentration which may divert a player’s attention away from the game and reduce his playing enjoyment. There is also a 'casual' card counting system which is much easier to master and perhaps equally effective.

Casual Card Counting

This system is exactly what it sounds like – a casual counting system. It doesn't involve a lot of concentration or mathematical calculations and does not tax the player’s memory.

A deck rich in face cards and aces is an advantage to the player. All the player needs to do is casually observe the flow of cards coming out of a deck or shoe and mentally note if very few face cards or aces were dealt. If so, this is a situation where the hand will probably be good for the player. So the player should increase his bet.

The low number or high proportion of exposed high cards is easily noticeable by casual observation. Often several hands will be played where the mix of face cards and low value cards are relatively even. But when there is a noticeable absence of high value cards players should increase their next wager.

Players should always do some sort of casual card counting unless they are playing to a strict card counting system such as the Hi-Low system. Casual counting won't guarantee winners in every hand, but it will give the player a slight advantage.